(The Center Square) – Just over half of South Dakota’s voters solid their poll to re-elect Republican Gov. Kristi Noem for a second time period, however one expert believes the turnout had little to do along with her victory.
According to David Wiltse, affiliate professor of political science at South Dakota State University, Noem’s victory over Democrat Jamie Smith and Libertarian Tracey Quint on Tuesday evening was probably resulting from undecided voters turning again to get together alliances in the ultimate moments of the election. Noem received 62% of the vote to Smith’s 35%. Quint obtained 3% of the votes counted.
An estimated 59.4% of South Dakotans voted in this yr’s midterm election, with 354,652 of the 597,073 registered voters casting their votes Office of the Secretary of State of South Dakota.
Voter turnout was decrease than in earlier years, though the variety of registered voters in the nation has elevated. In the 2018 midterm elections, 65.39% of the state’s 341,048 voters made it to the polls.
Wiltse mentioned he has seen no knowledge to counsel that the outcomes of this yr’s gubernatorial marketing campaign have been “profoundly determined or influenced by turnout.” He additionally serves as Director of the SDSU Survey, a analysis unit of the Political Science program at SDSU’s School of American and Global Studies. During elections, the analysis group examines and creates forecasts for upcoming races affecting the state.
The SDSU ballot launched in September confirmed a shut race between Noem and Smith, however an estimated 14% of voters have been undecided on the time of their ballot.
Wiltse mentioned these tied votes, together with voting modifications, probably modified the election outcomes in the ultimate depend.
“I suspect that the movement we saw from the September polls to Election Day was largely the result of where our undecided and ‘defective’ respondents ultimately voted,” Wiltse informed The Center Square. “In the gubernatorial marketing campaign, 13% of Republicans polled mentioned they have been undecided and seven% mentioned they might vote for Smith.
Wiltse mentioned modifications in voting decisions could also be widespread for some voters as Election Day approaches resulting from a phenomenon referred to as “negative partisanship.”
“As the election rapidly approaches and the public is inundated with news, their normal partisan tendencies are reactivated and they begin to ‘come home’ to their party’s candidate,” Wiltse added. “Any concerns they may have had about their candidate would be washed away by stronger feelings of animosity they have about the opposing candidate.”
While the SDSU ballot had predicted a win for Noem, Wiltse mentioned the lead is barely bigger than anticipated.
“I was a bit surprised by the erosion of support for Smith,” Wiltse added. “But we always knew and made it clear that the end result would not be what we saw in this survey.”