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Picking the Pac, Week 11: Forever in Eugene

It’s been 4 weeks since I picked an outright loser in a Pac-12 sport. I take a little bit of credit score, however this sequence additionally speaks to the hole between the high and backside of the convention. The remainder of the method we’ll get extra showdowns between completely different permutations of Utah, USC, UCLA and Oregon which is able to make these picks tougher.

As at all times, the strains come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds/Lines topic to alter. The phrases and circumstances apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for particulars.

Friday sport: Colorado @ USC, USC -5/34

Last week I picked Colorado +31.5 at residence to Oregon and misplaced. The Buffs’ offense was too weak to attain 10+ factors even in opposition to a mediocre Oregon protection. This matchup is comparable with the twist that USC is uniquely poor defending the run, which is the solely factor that does not make Colorado horrible. The USC protection even gave up 35 to Cal final week. I do know they are saying “once bitten, twice shy” however I simply can’t hand over on these 30+ level spreads.

USC 45 – Colorado 17


NCAA Football: Washington State at Stanford

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The Cougs have an opportunity to qualify early for the bowl in the solely sport of the week with a single-digit unfold. Since Trenton took over Bourguet QB, the Sun Devil offense has woke up. WSU’s protection had just a few dangerous moments all through the yr, however was usually stable. The offense additionally rushed for an uncommon 306 yards in opposition to Stanford final week. They ought to have the ability to maintain floor assault in opposition to ASU. Even the season temperature of 37 levels won’t assist the guests from the desert.

WSU 35 – ASU 24

Cal @ Oregon Street, OSU-14

OSU’s loss at Husky Stadium final week should not function an indictment in opposition to the Beavers. They misplaced an away sport to a workforce of comparable rank with a last-second subject objective. Likewise, Cal misplaced a fifth straight sport, however staying inside a rating of USC improves her profile. The Beaver protection ought to have the ability to restrict Jack Plummer and a proficient group of Cal receivers. Still, OSU is not designed to blow groups away. I take them to win comfortably, however I do not like their possibilities of pushing the lead previous 2 TDs.

OSU 33 – Cal 21

Stanford @ Utah, Utah -24

NCAA Football: Utah, Arizona

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Stanford performed three straight video games determined by some extent or two, however misplaced the final two by a mixed 63 factors. In Salt Lake City, the prospects aren’t significantly better. The groups which have induced issues for Utah are the ones that might run the ball successfully. Stanford misplaced EJ Smith earlier in the season and Casey Filkins has now joined him in the MASH unit. Cam Rising returned to the lineup for Utah final week, however the offense relied on a committee of operating backs. The similar method ought to work in opposition to Stanford’s 130th Rush Defense (by success price).

Utah 41-Stanford 14

Arizona @ UCLA, UCLA -20

Arizona began 3-2 however has misplaced 4 straight and is now ending its fifth straight sport in opposition to the high 5 groups in the Pac. It’s arduous to think about that this monitor did not impression the workforce’s morale. The solely sport the Wildcats have held in single digits this run was the residence sport in opposition to USC. UCLA’s offense has been nice and constant all through convention play, and Arizona’s horrible protection does not stand an opportunity to gradual them down. Arizona’s solely likelihood for canopy is to attain in piles themselves.

UCLA 45-AZ 24

Washington @ Oregon, Oregon -13.5

While the previous twenty years of this rivalry have tipped closely in the Ducks’ favor, I’m undecided the historical past of two model new teaching staffs issues a lot. Dan Lanning and Kalen Deboer carry offensive powerhouses to Eugene, every with defenses that may’t match the scoring fireworks. There’s little cause to assume these narratives will change this week.

One factor that units groups aside is Oregon’s willingness and skill to steer the ball. Washington wasn’t hopeless in the operating sport, however Oregon was considered one of the finest in the nation. Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington had been a deadly 2-1 with Sean Dollars altering the tempo. The lethal operating sport has taken the strain off Bo Nix of carrying offense alone. Nix has responded with the finest season of his profession by far — his completion share and yards per try have skyrocketed after staying regular throughout his time at Auburn. Washington held Cal and Oregon State on 21 factors every, however these outcomes required some luck and climate. Perhaps the trainers will take their poison and cargo the field like they did late on in opposition to the Beavers to pressure Bo Nix to throw extra. If Nix makes errors, it may very well be sufficient to swing the sport. The odds are slim, however operating the Ducks 200 yards is a surefire path to defeat.

NCAA Football: Washington at UCLA

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Dawgs usually tend to cling round with an aggressive offensive assault that may reap the benefits of Oregon’s personal defensive deficiencies. The Ducks have pressured turnovers with a stable clip this season (14 and gave up counting in opposition to 7) ​​so conserving the bag clear for Michael Penix shall be essential. The Dawgs have began slowly on offense in the final two video games. This development can not proceed in the event that they need to sustain with Oregon. The mixture of operating play and brief passing play must be threatening sufficient to forestall the protection from taking part in so softly that UW cannot make large performs. But the lifeblood of the sport plan needs to be Penix working the intermediate elements of the subject to Odunze, McMillan and Polk. If this method clicks for 4 quarters, the Dawgs have an opportunity.

To me, the extra probably consequence is that the Ducks simply have an excessive amount of offensive firepower. UW’s protection was extra respectable at Husky Stadium. Playing in Autzen places them at an obstacle. As good as the passing offense is, asking them to play a clear four-quarter in a hostile setting is a tall order.

Oregon 45-Washington 31

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    Oregon wins by lower than 14

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