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New Hampshire

ANALYSIS: NH Midterms – The Cult Vs. The Cause

New Hampshire voters are dealing with staggering costs to fill their oil tanks and activate the facility. Southern New Hampshire, together with Manchester and Nashua, is among the many high 10 most inflationary markets. No area of the nation has been hit tougher by Biden’s vitality insurance policies than New England, the place the phrases “scarcity” and “brown out” now often seem in reviews.

And but a majority of the identical Granite Staters who will bear these prices simply voted to maintain the incumbent Democrats in energy, even growing their numbers within the New Hampshire House of Representatives.

As?

Actually, the suitable query is “Why?”

“He who has a why to live can endure almost any how,” wrote the thinker Friedrich Nietzsche, and this midterm election indicated that he was on to one thing.

One of the most typical clichés of pre-imply panditry was, “This election will be about questions around the kitchen table.” An in depth second: “People are voting on their wallets.” They’re “how you live” questions. Pay the payments. Personal financial consolation. money in your pocket.

And the stereotypes had been fully flawed. Yes, Republicans gained a majority amongst voters who mentioned the economic system was horrible. But these voters had been already extra Republican.

The drawback is that amongst those that known as the economic system “not so good,” New Hampshire’s Democrats gained by a 31-level margin, based on Exit polls.

Ditto for the 12 % of Granite Staters who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden. Typically, the social gathering with no energy would win by a margin of 20 factors. Instead, they went to +47 for the Democrats.

And how Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics famous on Sunday, “The biggest shocker was independent voters who, after four straight half-term cycles, voted by double digits in favor of the outside party by two points, 51-49, for the incumbent party.”

Truly wonderful numbers that replicate the truth that most voters agreed the Democrats weren’t doing their job and a majority voted for them anyway.

Because they did not vote on the “how” however on the “why”. your beliefs. your trigger.

When the ultimate numbers are in, it’s seemingly that New Hampshire voters beneath the age of 30 had been elected in unusually giant numbers and that they dominated similar-day registrations. They haven’t appeared to vote on inflationary insurance policies or to censure extreme authorities spending. These youthful, extra idealistic voters had been motivated by the Democrats’ message to vote to save lots of America.

They voted to save lots of girls from a “Handmaid’s Tale” future and defend our democratic system from what President Joe Biden put it: MAGA “semi-fascism.” They got here not to economize on their vitality payments, however to save lots of democracy itself.

They had been voters with a trigger, they usually overwhelmingly voted Democrats.

Other voters could roll their eyes and dismiss their supposed “cause” as ridiculous. New Hampshire’s late abortion ban is not altering, and the document turnout is a rebuke to the “democracy in peril” cost. So how did the Democrats persuade these voters that the destiny of our republic is at stake?

The Democrats haven’t satisfied them. The Republicans did.

Thanks to Gov. Chris Sununu, there have been greater than 350,000 potential Republican votes in play final Tuesday. If the remainder of the ticket may have saved 90 % of them, the GOP may have been swept Tuesday evening.

But solely 275,000 folks voted for Don Bolduc and a mixed 277,000 for the 2 Republican House candidates, Bob Burns and Karoline Leavitt.

It seems that nominating Trump-backed candidates who wholeheartedly embrace ridiculous theories about stolen elections, vaccine microchips, and highschool “furries” is not simply embarrassing for Republicans. It’s additionally driving Democrats to the polls in droves.

Remember that crimson-sizzling match between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Scott Brown on the 2014 Midterms? The whole turnout was round 490,000. Then got here Trump. Voter turnout rose to 565,000 in 2018.

Last Tuesday it rose to 620,000.

Because the NHGOP main voters insist on embracing the Trump cult by requiring candidates to point out allegiance to him – and show it by publicly endorsing his most ridiculous claims – the social gathering is represented by candidates like Bolduc, Leavitt and Burns . These candidates, in flip, boosted turnout amongst Democrats and assured their very own downfall.

Contestants like Bolduc and Burns additionally pushed the GOP vote. While 97 % of Granite State Democrats supported their social gathering’s candidates, solely 89 % of Republicans did so for his or her social gathering’s candidates. That’s how Hassan went from a razor-skinny win in 2016 to a double-digit blowout this previous week.

Sununu has pared the 2022 election outcomes right down to a single sentence: “Voters want to set policy, but they voted ‘crazy’ first.”

The lengthy-time period problem for New Hampshire Republicans, significantly in federal elections, is that the state is so rich and households so rich that they’ll afford to vote on points like abortion and electoral integrity and different summary ideas, even when they do the economic system is unhealthy. Voting on their “why” is not truly that a lot of a sacrifice for his or her “how.”

Nominating Trumpian Republicans and arguing that voters would settle for their eccentricities in trade for decrease taxes and extra GDP progress hasn’t labored since 2018. What labored is a professional-alternative average who “supported the Republican ticket” however wasn’t eager on it. A Republican who was prepared to publicly criticize Trump, however not in useless.

Sununu’s instance exhibits that there are lots of Granite Staters that Republicans will vote for. The GOP’s job is to present them Republicans to vote for.

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