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Indiana

Bet on Philly to get back on the spread-covering track

The Philadelphia Eagles narrowly prevented their second straight loss as they headed to Indianapolis final Sunday and recovered late for a 17-16 win. However, the Eagles by no means threatened to cowl as a 6.5-point avenue favourite (as we predicted).

It was Philadelphia’s third straight non-cover after an excellent 5-1 ATS run.

Despite the unfold cashing hunch, the Eagles (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) are placing down large factors once more in Week 12. Depending on the sportsbook, they seem to be a 6.5- or 7-point residence favourite in opposition to Green Bay soccer on Sunday evening.

It’s the fifth straight week — and the seventh time in the final eight weeks — that Philadelphia has been favored by at the least six factors.

Is the line justified? Well, the Packers (4-7 SU and ATS) have precisely one win of their final seven video games. And they’ve solely conceded twice in the final eight.

Also, the Eagles haven’t had a four-game ATS skid since weeks 11-14 of the 2019 marketing campaign — a 48-game stretch. It’s a collection we’re betting on in opposition to the reeling Packers at The Linc.

Here’s our Packers vs. Eagles prediction for Sunday Night Football.

Note: Odds have been up to date at 3:00pm ET on November twenty third.

Last week in Indianapolis, the Eagles regarded three-quarters useless in the water. They solely had three factors, misplaced three turnovers and appeared fully out of step offensively.

But Jalen Hurts and co. awoke in the fourth quarter, rebounding from deficits of 13-3 and 16-10, with Hurts scoring the game-winning landing on a 7-yard fourth-place quarterback sneak with 80 seconds remaining.

It was really the first good win of the season, introduced from behind by Philadelphia, who had taken an early lead for many of their first eight video games earlier than a Week 10 residence loss to Washington.

It’s precisely the form of win the Packers recorded in Week 10 as they rebounded from a 14-point deficit to beat Dallas 31-28 in extra time at residence. However, Green Bay failed to capitalize on that momentum 4 days later in opposition to Tennessee, shedding 27-17 as a 3-point residence favourite on Thursday evening.

That draining loss all however ended the Packers’ playoff hopes. As a end result, it would not be in any respect shocking to see a very flat efficiency from Green Bay on Sunday evening.

It additionally would not be a shock to see the Packers’ amazingly anemic offense proceed to fail.

» READ MORE: Eagles favored vs. Aaron Rodgers, Packers in Week 12 primetime matchup

Even with reigning two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers in the pilot’s seat, Green Bay has scored 17 factors or fewer in 4 of their final six video games. In 11 video games, the workforce averages 18.4 factors (twenty sixth in the NFL) and has 22 or fewer factors eight occasions.

Compare that to the Eagles: Last week’s 17-16 win in Indy marked the first time Philly had scored underneath 20 factors this season. And regardless of being held at 17 and 21 factors over the previous two weeks, the Eagles have nonetheless hung up 24 or extra seven occasions in 10 video games.

But the foremost cause why we aspect with the residence workforce is a mismatch in the trenches.

Philadelphia ranks sixth in the NFL with 142.5 dashing yards per sport; Green Bay’s protection ranks twenty fourth in opposition to run and totals 135.8 yards per outing. The Eagles additionally lead the league with 18 dashing touchdowns; The packers dropped 10 TDs on the floor.

Additionally, Philadelphia, with its 141 dashing yards in opposition to the Colts, has rushed for greater than 135 yards in seven of ten video games. Green Bay has rushed for greater than 150 yards six occasions (together with 4 of the final six).

Given that the Packers’ protection in opposition to go ranks fifth, we anticipate the Eagles to do loads of ground-and-pound Sunday evening. And we anticipate that sport plan to yield outcomes (whereas holding the harmful Rodgers off the area).

Finally, there’s a enormous disconnect between these groups in the gross sales division. Philly nonetheless leads the NFL at +12 with a league-best 21 takeaways. Green Bay ranks twenty seventh at -4, with 15 giveaways (solely the Colts, Saints, Bills and Patriots have extra).

Yes, we stay a bit involved about the Eagles’ operating protection (which was higher final week). We’re additionally involved a few evident Sunday Night Football pattern (the favourite has gained the final 5 weeks however hasn’t been ready to cowl it each time) and the undeniable fact that Green Bay has cashed their final three as underdogs (together with two combination wins).

Still, Philadelphia is the superior aspect, one which has all the momentum. And since 2006, the outright winner has coated level distribution in 10 consecutive Eagles-Packers conferences.

So put the chalk on Caesar’s Sportsbook and anticipate Green Bay to lose by at the least 9 factors for the fourth time in six weeks — and for the Eagles to win by greater than a landing for the fifth time in six residence video games.

  • Point distribution: Packers (+6.5) @ Eagles (-6.5)

  • cash line: Packers (-305) @ Eagles (+240

» READ MORE: Full sports activities betting protection from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer just isn’t a web based playing operator or playing web site. We present this sports activities betting data for leisure functions solely.

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