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International free agents the Cards might sign

International free agents the Cards might sign
International free agents the Cards might sign

Yesterday, a typical report a couple of present free agent was posted as information on Twitter. There was nothing exceptional about it, it shared some info and did not even specify particular groups that had been . But good

Which reveals the Cardinals’ current forays into the worldwide market. The current instance hasn’t labored for Drew VerHagen to this point, however Kwang-Hyun Kim, Miles Mikolas, and Sueng-Hwan Oh did it — very nicely — so it is bizarre to be instantly antagonistic that this can be a attainable Cardinals transfer.

But they do have some extent that it might be a Cardinals transfer. But Drew Rucinski is not the solely choice. There are just a few potentialities, and a few are extra doubtless than others. Or not going in any respect. The Cardinals aren’t giving something away and who is aware of how connected they’re to those guys. But let’s overview some attainable worldwide signings.

Kodai Senga, SP (30)

ZiPS projection: 22 GS, 140 IP, 166 Ks, 54 BBs, 3.54 ERA, 2.9 WAR

Estimated wage: 4 years, $56 million

Senga is the solely free agent I’ve entry to his ZiPS. Because it was posted on Fangraphs amongst the high 50 free agents. This is admittedly previous the level the place the Cardinals are usually concerned in worldwide free agents. Mikolas had the largest contract of the profitable signings at simply 2 years and $16 million. Still, it is tough to not see that projected wage and no cause to sign him.

You clearly cannot deal with a global participant’s projection the identical method you deal with a participant with years of MLB expertise, however for what it is price when the market charges him like a 2.9 WAR pitcher, a 4-year “should” do deal value $82 million. Hypothetically, you get a closely discounted 2.9 WAR pitcher with much more uncertainty than your typical 2.9 WAR pitcher. He is projected to be paid like a 2.2 WAR pitcher whereas projecting himself as a 2.9 WAR participant. Doesn’t appear to be a foul guess.

Masataka Yoshida, OF (29)

Career in NPB (per 600 PAs): .326/.419/.538, 25 HRs, 4 SBs, 2 CS, 13.1 BB%, 9.4 Ok%

These stats look nice, however sadly I haven’t got a prognosis for you. I do not understand how these are translated. Those Ok/BB numbers are superb, however they’re additionally… superb. He posts nowhere close to that disparity in the majors. In an article by Will Sammon on the Athletic, he addressed a few of the considerations about signing him:

“In Japan, a few of the finest pitchers really performed on Yoshida’s crew, and he sometimes noticed 85-90 mph with a number of breaking pitches and four-seam fastballs versus high-speed, sharp-moving two-seamers. For comparability, the Pacific League (the place Yoshida performed and extremely sought-after free agent Koudai Senga performed) is taken into account a tougher league to beat than the Central (the place Suzuki and Tsutsugo performed). That makes a few of Yoshida’s numbers extra spectacular in comparison with another Japanese gamers. Another scout questioned if Yoshida had obtained famous person remedy in tight locations that might not go his method as usually in US protection, and the working hadn’t impressed, one scout mentioned, so his worth simply trusted that see if he can hit.

He’s additionally 5’8, 175 kilos, so one has to marvel about the energy translation. The writer additionally identified that whereas his wage is unknown, it is a affordable guess to assume he’ll value lower than the Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki, who went for five years, $85 million since he was two years outdated is older. Maybe let us take a look at Suzuki not as a result of they’re comparable gamers however due to the totally different stats.

Suzuki was a .315/.414/.570 hitter for his profession in the NPB with 13.7 BB% and 16,000%. In his first season with the majors, he was a .262/.336/.433 hitter with 9.4 BB% and 24.7K%. His profession .255 ISO dropped to .171. It was initially projected for two.6 WAR in about 580 PAs and ended up reaching 2 fWAR in 446 PAs. Pretty a lot spot on, apart from the PAs. That could be useful if we had his ZiPS.

If we had been to see the same distinction in Ok/BB numbers, Yoshida would have a BB fee of 9% and 14.5K% with an ISO of 0.146. If he is succeeded, he is most definitely an above-average hitter. I seemed for comps and no one was excellent, however each instance I discovered was a reasonably good hitter. Jurickson Profar went an excessive amount of however had a really low BABIP (.272 BABIP, 110 wRC+), Jose Abreu handed however had a brilliant excessive BABIP (.350, 137 wRC+) when the energy would not translate however the Ok/BB does once you do this do he appears to be like like JP Crawford with possibly the next BABIP (.275, 104 wRC+) or possibly Andrew Benintendi however a decrease BABIP (.352, 122 wRC+). Some might be tempted to go the Steven Kwan route, however I doubt he has that elite Ok/BB ratio given how a lot Suzuki’s numbers have modified.

Drew Rucinski, 33 (SP)

KBO Counts: 31 GS, 193.2 IP, 24.3 Ok%, 4.3 BB%, 66.7 GB%, 2.97 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.84 xFIP

That… really appears like a Cardinals pickup. Check out this groundball fee! Rucinski signed the second-biggest deal in KBO historical past for the 2022 season at $2 million. If you are questioning about the VerHagen comparability, nicely, it is sophisticated. Because VerHagen had considerably worse stats in a harder league. VerHagen revealed Ok/BB numbers of three strikeouts to 1 stroll. Rucinski had 5.71 strikeouts on a stroll. So I really feel like he has extra management than VerHagen even in competitors.

MLB Trade Rumors forecast him $9 million over 2 years. Maybe he has sufficient market to finish up in a spot that ensures him a rotation spot. Or possibly he simply goes the place the cash is, he is not getting any youthful. And it is simpler to think about him being good from the wider space. In the overview I learn he has a sinker/splitter combo which definitely explains the groundball fee.

Erick Jokisch, 33 (SP)

KBO Counts: 30 GS, 185.1 IP, 20.6 Ok%, 4.4 BB%, 72 GB%, 2.57 ERA/2.81 FIP/2.87 xFIP

Déjà-vu? Well, Jokisch is left-handed. Also born in Springfield, Illinois, he could have grown up a Cardinals fan. Not precisely certain what his market is – Rucinski was MLB Trade Rumors fiftieth free agent however Jokisch is unranked – but when his market is just like Aaron Brooks – minor league deal however $1 million prorated if he is in the majors — that might tip the scales. If the cardinals have an interest. But that is one other groundball heavy management artist. Granted, the Cardinals search for swings and misses, so Rucinski suits greater than Jokisch in that sense.

Shintaro Fujinami, 29 (RP)

NPB Counts: 16 G, 66.2 IP, 23.6 Ok%, 7.6 BB%, 3.38 ERA

Well, this is an attention-grabbing story. Fujinami was as soon as one in all the finest pitchers in baseball. Back in the 2015-2016 low season, the crew behind NEIFI revealed the high predicted younger pitchers in baseball and included worldwide gamers. A couple of years earlier than he made his strategy to the States, Shohei Ohtani had the sixth-best predicted ERA from that system for the 2016 season. And for high high margins for pitchers underneath 24, Fujinama had the seventh-best margin, becoming a member of Ohtani as the solely worldwide gamers on this listing.

issues have modified. He turned down the subsequent season and was transferred to the bullpen in 2017. Since then he has struggled as he has been in the minors for not less than a part of each season since then together with the final one though it’s not too clear why as his stats have been fairly good. Carter Chapley of the Post-Dispatch, who helpfully gave me just a few names in his article, revealed a scouting report on him:

With a fastball mixture in extra of 100 mph and a slider-splitter mixture that is clocked a fee of 9.1Ks per 9 innings final season, the greatest query is his command as he tends to mess with the yips falling aside and wildly lacking the strike zone. This bias contributed to his demotion from starter to reliever in 2017.

Great stuff, no orders. Statistically, there isn’t any good case for getting him, but when the Cardinals’ scouts and coaches see something in the video that means they will help him, it looks like a threat price taking. Couldn’t command an MLB deal both.